So this year I decided to try something different and save myself from myself. I didn't watch a single show. (I did scan the Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and British Academy of Film and Television Arts pages for their lists of winners though.) And until yesterday, I didn't read a single blog. I had almost decided to not even do a post this year! *gasp* I've hardly even been to the movies lately. Life with 4 kids is busy and on top of that we bought our first home a few months ago and for anyone who has spent time looking and buying a home you know how much time it takes. Then you have to move and what a picnic that is... Out of the 9 best picture nominees I've only seen 2- Argo and Les Miserables. Pathetic.
But yesterday afternoon I printed my ballot off and went at it. I read some blogs, scanned some polls and decided to mainly vote with my first instinct. I gave myself till tonight to write my blog and cement my picks as I am busy, busy tomorrow and Sunday and don't have the time to sit and fret. I'm not even watching the first half of the Oscar telecast live. I purposely signed up to take dessert to our small group tomorrow evening to prove to myself that I can behave like a normal human being on Oscar night and go about my life. I figured if I was making dessert, I should probably accompany it rather than just send my
(Multiple screens up and running.)
But it's amazing how much information I can glean and store in 24 hours. So bear with me as I spit it all back out and don't be surprised if I wind up not doing well Sunday night. I had a hard time checking my boxes this year.
Some technical notes: I've marked just some of the many awards certain films or actors have received this year by their names. A red "E" notes Roger Ebert's picks and you can see where I agree/differ from him and thus his contest. I am entered in Outguess Ebert.
CC- Critic's Choice
GG- Golden Globe
SAG- Screen Actors Guild
BAFTA- British Academy of Film and Television Arts
PGA- Producers Guild
DGA- Directors Guild
Leading Actor
Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"~ CC, GG, SAG, BAFTA E
Hugh Jackman in "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
Denzel Washington in "Flight"
The amount of talent in this group is tremendous. It's really a shame they all wound up nominated together as they each deserve to win. Everyone knows Day-Lewis can act. But from what I've been told, Cooper showed a new side to himself. I was blown away by Jackman's Les Mis performance and I wish he would come out of nowhere to win. Phoenix's performance left me speechless in The Master. I can't comment on Washington, as I didn't see the film, but the man is great in whatever he's in.
Who Will Win- Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win- see above.
Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin in "Argo"
Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master" ~ CC
Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln" ~ SAG E
Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained" ~ GG, BAFTA
All of the 5 nominees have won an Oscar before. So at least no one will feel left out. I said that last year it didn't matter who or what it was, if the Weinstein Co. was behind it - that's my winner. So...
Who Will Win- Robert De Niro
Who Could Win- Christoph Waltz
Leading Actress
Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty" ~ CC
Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook" ~ SAG, GG E
Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour" ~ BAFTA
Quvenzhane Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"
I don't think Jennifer Lawrence really deserves to win. I thought she was terrible in Hunger Games and X-Men, but have been told she's "so good" in Playbook and this is her 2nd lead actress nom in 3 years. To quote her, “Not to sound rude, but [acting] is stupid,” Lawrence told Vanity Fair. “Everybody’s like, ‘How can you remain with a level head?’ And I’m like, ‘Why would I ever get cocky? I’m not saving anybody’s life. There are doctors who save lives and firemen who run into burning buildings. I’m making movies. It’s stupid.’” She might think what she does is stupid, but I'd give an arm and a leg to be making movies. And I would guess that Naomi Watts who has been acting for years and to all appearances has a very level head, wouldn't say what she does is stupid. Reward someone who can appreciate it Hollywood.
Who Will Win- Jennifer Lawrence (PS- Playbook is a Weinstein film)
Who Could Win- Jessica Chastain
Who Should Win- Chastain or Watts
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in "The Master"
Sally Field in "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables" ~ CC, GG, SAG, BAFTA E
Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Who Will Win- Anne Hathaway
Who Should Win- Anne Hathaway, even though this is what Roger Ebert has to say about Les Miserables: ""I'm Guessing Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables," because she holds the general consensus and we're predicting, not choosing. She may benefit by an occasioal Academy tendency to award this category to what it sees as the Best Picture runner-up. Her character isn't even essential in 'Les Miserables," but how many characters are? The Victor Hugo novel fills its characters with abundant life. The film assigns them to line up and belt out dirges to the camera, which represents the audience. I've seen "Les Miserables," and many readers have asked me why I haven't reviewed it. I fractured that femur at the time and wasn't up to it. Today I don't have the heart. The Oscars haven't even been held yet, and "Les Mis" is already a picture that is Over With."" Well somebody's got a popcorn bucket up their butt...
Now for a whole bunch of categories I have an opinion on, but will spare you the details...
Animated Feature
Brave ~ GG, BAFTA
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph ~ CC, PGA E
Who Will Win- Brave
Who Could Win- Wreck-It Ralph
Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi ~ CC, BAFTA E
Lincoln
Skyfall
Who Will Win- Life of Pi
Who Could Win- Skyfall
Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi ~ CC, BAFTA
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Who Will Win- Life of Pi
Costume Design
Anna Karenina ~ CC, BAFTA
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
Who Will Win- Anna Karenina
Who Could Win- Les Miserables or Mirror Mirror
Production Design
Anna Karenina ~ CC
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables ~ BAFTA
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Who Will Win- Anna Karenina
Who Could Win- Les Miserables or Life of Pi
Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables ~ BAFTA
Who Will Win- Les Miserables
Who Could Win- The Hobbit
Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Who Will Win- Life of Pi
Who Could Win- Lincoln
Original Song
Before my Time from Chasing Ice
Everyobdy Needs a Best Friend from Ted
Pi's Lullaby from Life of Pi
Skyfall from Skyfall
Suddenly from Les Miserables
Who Will Win- Skyfall (hello, it's Adele!)
Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi ~ BAFTA (it also just won a guild specific award)
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Who Will Win- Life of Pi
Who Could Win- Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Miserables ~ BAFTA
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Who Will Win- Les Miserables
Who Could Win- Life of Pi
Film Editing
Argo ~ BAFTA
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty ~ CC
William Goldberg was the editor for both Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. He's been nominated a few times before and has always lost. Someone said this year he could very well lose again, to himself.
Who Will Win- Argo
Who Could Win- Zero Dark Thirty
Original Screenplay
Amour ~ E
Django Unchained ~ CC, GG, BAFTA
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty ~ Screen Writers Guild
Even though Zero Dark Thirty won the guild award and it's written by Mark Boal, he previously won for The Hurt Locker, I am choosing Tarantino.
Who Will Win- Django Unchained
Who Could Win- Zero Dark Thirty
Foreign Language Film
"Amour" - Austria ~ CC, GG, BAFTA E
"Kon-Tiki" - Norway
"No" - Chile
"A Royal Affair" - Denmark
"War Witch" - Canada
Who Will Win- Amour
Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
Who Will Win- Searching for Sugar Man
Documentary Short
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
Who Will Win- Open Heart
Animated Short Film
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
Paperman
Who Will Win- Paperman
Live Action Short Film
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
Who Will Win- Curfew
These last 3 had me going back and forth.
Adapted Screenplay
Argo ~ Screen Writers Guild
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln ~ CC E
Silver Linings Playbook ~ BAFTA
I personally am of the opinion that whoever wins this, will get Best Picture. And I think all but Beasts of the Southern Wild have a chance at that. So who do you pick when you feel that way? And all the other things like missing director nominations, praise for this and flack for that, etc. get factored in?
Who Will Win- Argo
Who Could Win- yeah.... *sigh*
Directing
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln ~ E
Silver Linings Playbook
If Ben "I'd have won if I was nominated" Affleck's movie was up in that list it would look like this-
Argo ~ CC, GG, SAG, BAFTA, DGA, PGA
In the 70+ years the directors guild awards have been giving out their top honor, only six times has the DGA winner not gone on to win the directing Oscar. Well, make that 7 now.
What to do, what to do. I'm going with Ang Lee for Life of Pi. Why? Because Spielberg didn't do anything that he hasn't already done. He's a great director, working with a bunch of great actors. Lee took a difficult book, blended CGI with reality, tackled working with water, and brought this film to life in 3D. He was the best director.
Who Will Win- Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Who Could Win- Steven Spielberg for Lincoln OR David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Best Picture
Amour
Argo ~ CC, GG, BAFTA E
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Who Will Win- Argo
Who Could Win- Life of Pi, Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook
Argo is a great Hollywood film. It's suspenseful, yet comedic. It's historical, with a little added fiction. It has great performances. Great editing. Great writing. And except for hearing the "F" word every 10 seconds, I truly enjoyed the film. So did a lot of other people apparently!
If Argo wins, it will become only the 4th film to win the Oscar for best picture without also being nominated for best director. The last film to do so, was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989.
(What my poor ballot looks like.)
So there you have it. Check back for next weeks blog to see what I have to say on what I got wrong and what I got right.
