The Oscar's

It's that time of year again for the annual Academy Awards Ceremony.  For the last two years our local theater has held a contest to see who can correctly pick the most Oscar winners.  I'm quite disappointed that they are not having it this year, but I was told that hopefully it would be back next year.  The first year they decided to hold the contest, I won!  (Oscar)  Last year, ehhh I came in second.  But that's ok because I really didn't choose wisely and ended up not doing so well.  You can read about THAT experience here- Oscar Follow Up.

This year I decided that instead of reading every blog I could and analyzing what every critic had to say (and putting myself into a panic about it all) - I was going to pick who *I* thought should win and stick to my guns.  I'd rather go with my gut and mess up, than follow everyone else's lead and be wrong because I relied too much on their opinions.  So, if come Sunday night I totally bomb, at least I can feel good about myself and the fact that I made my own opinions and stuck to them.  But I'm kind of hoping that doesn't happen....

Two years ago, "Slumdog Millionaire" pretty much stole the show.  They won everything it seemed.  Last year everyone thought that "Avatar" would sweep the field, but "The Hurt Locker" took quite a lot of the glory.  I don't see any one film making a sweep this year and my opinion is pretty much the opposite of everyone else's.  A lot of people think that "The King's Speech" will take top honors and thus, because of the momentum of that, will sweep up a lot of the lesser awards, such as costume design and original score.  With 12 nominations it's poised to do so.  Usually the film with the most nominations, takes the most awards including the top ones.  But I see the love being spread around a bit more than usual!

I am pretty confident in most of my picks.  However Best Supporting Actress is sort of a toss up due to some controversy. And when it comes to the Best Foreign Language films or the Best Short films, etc., I never really know who to pick as I only get to see the previews online.  I usually guess there.

Feel free to leave comments and your choices for Sunday nights winners!  It's always fun to see who gets the most correct!

Here are the nominees and my picks for the 83rd Academy Awards!


Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
James Franco in "127 Hours"

Who Will Win?  Colin Firth.  It's his time.  If Jeff Bridges hadn't been nominated for "Crazy Heart" last year, Firth would have won for "A Single Man."  And since Bridges did win last year, I don't see him winning again this year for True Grit.


Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"

Who Will Win?  Christian Bale.  There is some speculation amongst other critic's that Rush will take it in an upset if The King's Speech sweeps the Oscar's this year, but frankly I don't see that happening.  Rush already has a Best Actor Oscar from "Shine" and I think Bale deserves this one.


Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"

Who Will Win?  Natalie Portman.  Why?  Because she's won everything else... all year... Annette Bening could steal it, but I highly doubt it.


Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

Who Will Win?  Melissa Leo.  Again, there is speculation that the votes will be split between Adams and Leo and that Steinfeld (who was really the lead in True Grit) will slip in for the win.  But all 3 were nominated at the Screen Actor's Guild in the same category and that didn't happen, Leo won.  I am going ALL the way against the grain with my choice of Leo as the winner. Steinfeld, while she was superb, should see the nod as a great achievement and go on to make more films, that garner more nominations and an eventual win.

*I just saw a news story this Friday morning that Leo ran ad's in the paper to garner herself votes - which has angered many academy voters.  (It's kind of taboo to toot your own horn.)  I'm going to stick with her as my winner, BUT her "vanity" could really hurt her and Steinfeld might take this go around.*


Animated Feature

"How To Train Your Dragon"
The Illusionist"
"Toy Story 3"

Who Will Win?  Toy Story 3.  Duh.  I can't stand the fact that it was allowed to be nominated for the Best Picture award as well - I don't think it should be in both categories.  But I don't think animated films should be nominated AT ALL in the Best Picture category to begin with.


Art Direction

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"True Grit"

Who Will Win?  Alice in Wonderland.  Why?  Because Tim Burton is famous for the look of his films and this one is really spectacular.  Inception could be the surprise winner in this category.


Cinematography

"Black Swan"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit"

Who Will Win?  True Grit.  Cinematographer Roger Deakins has been nominated 9 times for his work.  I think this year he will win.


Costume Design

"Alice in Wonderland"
"I Am Love"
"The King's Speech"
"The Tempest"
"True Grit"

Who Will Win?  Alice in Wonderland.  Colleen Atwood has been nominated 9 times for the Oscar in this category and won twice.  I see her winning again.  Look for The King's Speech to possibly be the upset here.


Directing

"Black Swan" Darren Aronofsky
"The Fighter" David O. Russell
"The King's Speech" Tom Hooper
"The Social Network" David Fincher
"True Grit" Joel and Ethan Coen

Who Will Win?  Tom Hooper.  In the 63 years I believe the Director's Guild has been giving out their best director award in their individual guild, the winner of the DGA has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar all but 5 or 6 times I think?  IF there is an upset, it will come from David Fincher for The Social Network. Again, I go completely against the grain by picking Hooper.


Documentary (Feature)

"Exit through the Gift Shop"
"Gasland"
"Inside Job"
"Restrepo"
"Waste Land"

Who Will Win?  Inside Job


Documentary (Short Subject)

"Killing in the Name"
"Poster Girl"
"Strangers No More"
"Sun Come Up"
"The Warriors of Qiugang"

Who Will Win?  Killing in the Name


Film Editing

"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"

Who Will Win?  The Social Network



Foreign Language Film

"Biutiful" Mexico
"Dogtooth" Greece
"In a Better World" Denmark
"Incendies" Canada
"Outside the Law" Algeria

Who Will Win?  Incendies


Makeup

"Barney's Version"
"The Way Back"
"The Wolfman"

Who Will Win?  The Wolfman


Music (Original Score)

"How to Train Your Dragon" John Powell
"Inception" Hans Zimmer
"The King's Speech" Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours" A.R. Rahman
"The Social Network" Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Who Will Win?  The Social Network.  And it should win.  Look for The King's Speech to possibly pull an upset here if some predictions hold true and they "sweep" the field Sunday night.


Music (Original Song)

"Coming Home" from "Country Strong"
"I See the Light" from "Tangled"
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours"
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3"

Who Will Win?  We Belong Together


Best Picture

"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

Who Will Win?  The King's Speech.  My husband thinks that the votes will split between The King's Speech and The Social Network allowing for True Grit to sneak in.  The critic's are pretty evenly split between The King's Speech and The Social Network as well.  They are also split between their respective directors.  David Fincher (The Social Network) can't win best director and The King's Speech win best picture or vice versa. You don't have a best picture in my opinion, with out having the best director.


Short Film (Animated)

"Day & Night"
"The Gruffalo"
"Let's Pollute"
"The Lost Thing"
"Madagascar, A Journey Diary"

Who Will Win?  Day & Night


Short Film (Live Action)

"The Confession"
"The Crush"
"God of Love"
"Na Wewe"
"Wish 143"

Who Will Win?  I don't know. I can't find all the previews and the 3 articles I read, from 3 different critics, had 3 different winners....


Sound Editing

"Inception"
"Toy Story 3"
Tron: Legacy"
"True Grit"
"Unstoppable"

Who Will Win?  Inception


Sound Mixing

"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"Salt"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit"

Who Will Win?  The Social Network.  Sound mixing is also known as "sound design," this is the category that creates the space that our ears sense around the characters.  The Social Network had to create intricate conversations in challenging locations.



Visual Effects

"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"
"Hereafter"
"Inception"
"Iron Man 2"

Who Will Win?  Inception.  As Roger Ebert said, "It rolled up an entire city."


Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

"127 Hours" Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simeon Beaufoy
"The Social Network" Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3" Screenplay by Michael Arndt (and a bunch of other people I don't want to list!)
"True Grit" Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Winter's Bone" Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Who Will Win?  Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.  I've posted Roger Ebert's thoughts on this as I couldn't say it any better. "Here “The Social Network” will win its one major Oscar, although deserving more. “Adaptation” often means “loosely inspired by,” and Aaron Sorkin's brilliant dialogue and construction were wholly original (as were apparently many of his facts). You have to ask yourself what, precisely, the nominated “Toy Story 3” was adapting, apart from the continuing plight of the toys."


Writing (Original Screenplay)

"Another Year" Written by Mike Leigh
"The Fighter" Screenplay by a whole bunch of people...
"Inception" Written by Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right" Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
"The King's Speech" Screenplay by David Seidler

Who Will Win?  The King's Speech.  Again, there is speculation that Inception will take this win.  In the world of truly original screenplays, you don't get much more original than Inception.  But in the year of the King, sometimes the love rains down in the lesser categories and it should come out on top.