Well it's that time of year where I once again go crazy trying to predict who will win at the Academy Awards on Sunday. My eyes are blood-shot from staring at the computer screen. My ballot has names circled and then crossed out and then marked again when I changed my mind.
It's quite ridiculous, even though I have no actual incentive to win, I still obsess over my picks as it's more of a personal triumph than anything.
I decided to try something new this year when choosing my winners. In addition to seeing as many nominated films as I could (let's see... I saw The Artist, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, The Help, Rio, Transformers and Harry Potter) and reading as many "prediction blogs" as possible- ummm, maybe 20? -I decided to go with the actors/actresses/films that have been winning throughout the year. This is easier said than done! For example: The Eddie Award (American Cinema Editors) has 3 categories. The Descendants won for Dramatic Picture, The Artist for Musical or Comedy and Rango for Animated Feature. But there is only one editing category at the Oscars and both The Descendants and The Artist are nominated. The winner of the "dramatic" Eddie has gone on to win the Oscar 9 times in the last ten years, with the lone "musical or comedy" Eddie going to Chicago in 2002.
Same issues arise for Best Actress. Meryl Streep, Viola Davis. Viola Davis, Meryl Streep. Davis has won the Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice Award for The Help, Streep the Golden Globe and BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television) for her portrayal as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.
So who wins when they are all winning?
I don't know. And this is why I should really get paid for all this anxiety.
Thank goodness it's just once a year!
To add to my dilemma, there is a bit of Academy business that requires you to have actually seen the films you are voting on. That can throw a wrench in things for categories like Costume Design. The critically panned film W.E. (ya' know, the movie that Madonna directed?) WON the Costume Guild award for period film. It was up against Hugo and The Artist and all 3 are nominated together for the Oscar. Obviously the members of the costume guild saw the movie and preferred the costumes in it, over top Best Picture contenders The Artist and Hugo... but how many of the other Academy members saw W.E. compared to the other 2 films? All the people who didn't see W.E. will vote for something else and the small contingent of costume guild members (who also need to be Academy members) will be out numbered and W.E. will mark their guild award as the biggest triumph that film has had.
At least that's how I think it works.
BUT, it could be the case that you can only vote in the categories where you have seen all the films. Not just vote for the film in the category that you happened to see. In which case, W.E. would win as the costume guild members are probably the only ones who have seen all the Oscar nominated films in the Costume Design category and therefore would make the majority.
Ok, enough of the mumbo jumbo! Time to see my thoughts on who will win and who could win.
Best Picture-
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Who Will Win- The Artist
Who Could Win- The Descendants
Best Actor-
Demain Bichir in "A Better Life"
George Clooney in "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"
Who Will Win- Jean Dujardin
Who Could Win- George Clooney
And let me just say, Gary Oldman- after a fabulous career has FINALLY gotten his first ever nomination. It's about time.
Supporting Actor-
Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
Max van Sydow in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Who Will Win- Christopher Plummer
Who Could Win- Max van Sydow
Best Actress-
Glen Close in "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis in "The Help"
Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"
Who Will Win- Viola Davis
Who Could Win- Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actress-
Berenice Bejo in "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer in "The Help"
Who Will Win- Octavia Spencer
Who Could Win- Jessica Chastain
And not because Chastain was so great in The Help, but because she was in 6 films in 2011 alone and would be rewarded for her body of work over the year, not just this one film.
Animated Feature-
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Who Will Win- Rango
Art Direction-
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Who Will Win- Hugo
Who Could Win- The Artist
Cinematography-
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Who Will (and should!) Win- The Tree of Life
Who Could Win- The Artist
Costume Design-
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Who Will Win- Hugo
Who Could Win- The Artist or W.E.
I am so up in the air about this category and I will not be the least bit surprised if I get it wrong.
Directing-
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
Who Will Win- The Artist
Who Could Win- Hugo
Who Should Win- The Tree of Life
Documentary Feature-
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Who Will Win- Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Who Could Win- To Hell and Back Again or Undefeated
Documentary Short-
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Who Will Win- Saving Face
Who Could Win- any of them. I never get this category correct.
*on a side note*
God is the Bigger Elvis is the story of Dolores Hart. She was an actress in the 50's and 60's starring with Elvis, in King Creole, who left Hollywood and her fiance to become a Benedictine nun. When the writer of the 1992 Whoopie Goldberg movie, Sister Act, was working on the script- it was suggested to him that he go to an actual convent to do research. So he went to stay in the Regina Laudis Abbey in Bethlehem, Connecticut. The Prioress of this convent was Mother Dolores Hart who now has an Oscar nominated Documentary Short about her life. Mother Hart is the only known nun to be a voting member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Film Editing-
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Who Will Win- The Artist
Who Could Win- The Descendants
Foreign Language Film-
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
Who Will Win- A Separation
Makeup-
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Who Will Win- The Iron Lady
Who Could (and should, after all the years...) Win- Harry Potter
Original Score-
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Who Will Win- The Artist
Who Could Win- Hugo
Original Song-
Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Real in Rio from Rio
Who Will Win- Man or Muppet
Who Could Win- Real in Rio
What a lame year for original song...
Animated Short Film-
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Who Will Win- A Morning Stroll
Who Could Win- The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Live Action Short Film-
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Who Will Win- The Shore
Who Could Win- either Raju or Tuba Atlantic
Sound Editing-
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Who Will Win- Hugo
Who Could Win- War Horse
Sound Mixing-
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Who Will Win- Hugo
Who Could Win- War Horse
Visual Effects-
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Who Will Win- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Who Could Win- Hugo
Adapted Screen Play-
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Who Will Win- The Descendants
Who Could Win- Hugo
Original Screenplay-
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Who Will Win- Midnight in Paris
Who Could Win- The Artist
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